中信证券:看好智谱(02513)领军国内通用大模型 目标市值539亿港元
智通财经网·2026-01-07 13:07

Company Overview - Company is a leading domestic general large model enterprise, focusing on advanced general large model development and serving over 8,000 clients with a global developer community download exceeding 45 million [2] - The management team has a strong technical background, including top scientists like Academician Zhang Bo [2] - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be 312 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 150.9%, with H1 2025 revenue expected to reach 191 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 325.0% [2] - R&D expenses for H1 2025 are estimated at 1.595 billion yuan, with 1.145 billion yuan allocated to computing power [2] - The gross margin for local deployment business remains above 60%, indicating sustained scale effects [2] Industry Overview - The large language model market is expected to grow 20 times in the next six years, with enterprise-level demand dominating the trillion yuan opportunity [3] - According to Frost & Sullivan, the Chinese large language model market is projected to reach 5.3 billion yuan in 2024 and grow to 101.1 billion yuan by 2030, with a CAGR of 63.7% from 2024 to 2030 [3] - The enterprise-level large language model market is expected to reach 90.4 billion yuan by 2030, with the enterprise segment accounting for nearly 90% of the market [3] - Company holds a 6.6% market share in the large language model revenue for 2024, making it the largest independent large language model provider [3] Model Capabilities - The company's models are characterized by high cost-effectiveness and low hallucination rates, covering diverse enterprise needs [4] - The GLM-4-9B model achieved one of the lowest hallucination rates (1.3%) among top models according to Stanford University's AI Index report [4] - The latest flagship model, GLM-4.7, has shown excellent performance in coding and agent capabilities, narrowing the gap with leading overseas models [4] Business Growth Analysis - Local deployment revenue is expected to exceed 2 million yuan per client in 2024, with a doubling growth over the past two years [5] - In 2024, 50% of revenue is expected to come from the internet and technology sectors, with plans to expand into consumer electronics and IoT industries [5] - The company aims to enter high-barrier industries such as education and healthcare, leveraging enhanced model capabilities to accelerate application deployment [5] - Cloud business is expected to grow significantly, with new products like GLM CodingPlan and AutoGLM driving rapid increases in global paid user numbers [5] - The open platform Bigmodel.cn is projected to see a tenfold increase in paid customers throughout the year, with high-cost performance coding tools expected to have a greater impact on cloud revenue in 2026 [5]