万家基金贺方舟：看好“反内卷”政策对有色产业的长期影响

Core Viewpoint - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to have a long-term positive impact on the non-ferrous metal sector by addressing the imbalance of "excess low-end capacity and insufficient high-end capacity" through capacity constraints and structural upgrades [1] Supply Side Summary - The core of the "anti-involution" policy involves strict capacity replacement (e.g., electrolytic aluminum) and stringent control over new capacity in copper smelting and alumina production [1] - A dynamic monitoring mechanism for capacity expansion will be implemented to prevent disorderly growth, leading the industry to shift from "quantity-driven" to "quality-driven" [1] - Low-end capacities in oversupplied sectors such as alumina and copper smelting will gradually exit the market, enhancing the competitive advantage of leading enterprises [1] Price Side Summary - The previous "involution-style" price wars resulted in non-ferrous product prices being consistently below cost, severely compressing corporate profits [1] - The "anti-involution" policy aims to combat low-price disorderly competition, promoting prices to return to a reasonable range [1]