每吨涨了近100元”，委内瑞拉局势升级，山东地炼企业虽有冲击，但非“致命伤

Core Viewpoint - The recent geopolitical tensions, particularly related to Venezuela, have led to a significant increase in asphalt prices in Shandong, China, although the impact on the refining industry is not considered fatal [1][6]. Price Fluctuations - Asphalt prices have risen by nearly 100 yuan per ton recently, with current prices at 3050 yuan per ton for 70 asphalt, up from 2900 yuan per ton just days earlier [1][2]. - The price increase began on January 4, with an overall rise of approximately 300 yuan [2]. Impact of Venezuelan Oil Supply - The geopolitical situation in Venezuela, exacerbated by U.S. military actions and sanctions, has severely disrupted the country's oil export capabilities, with over 17 million barrels of Venezuelan oil stranded at sea as of January 5 [3]. - Venezuela holds 300 billion barrels of oil reserves, accounting for 17% of global production, and its heavy crude oil, particularly Merey, is essential for asphalt and marine fuel production [4]. Import Dynamics - In September 2023, Shandong independent refineries imported about 360,000 barrels of Venezuelan oil daily, with projections of 400,000 barrels per day in February 2024 [5]. - The supply of Merey crude oil has been significantly affected, leading to sharp increases in asphalt prices [6]. Industry Response - The price fluctuations in asphalt are viewed as a normal response to supply and demand disruptions, according to experts [6]. - Despite the critical role of Merey crude in asphalt production, the overall demand for asphalt in infrastructure projects has been weak, which has mitigated the impact of raw material supply disruptions [6].