UPS vs. WAB: Which Dividend-Paying Transportation Stock Has an Edge?

Core Insights - United Parcel Service (UPS) and Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation (WAB) have both announced dividend increases in 2025, reflecting their commitment to shareholder value despite economic uncertainty [1][2][3] Dividend Increases - Wabtec's board approved a 25% dividend increase in February 2025, raising its quarterly payout to $0.25 ($1.00 annually) from $0.20 per share ($0.80 annually) [2] - UPS raised its dividend to $1.64 ($6.56 annually) from $1.63 per share ($6.52 annually) during the same month [3] Dividend Sustainability - UPS faces concerns regarding the long-term sustainability of its dividend due to a high payout ratio, which indicates a significant portion of earnings is distributed as dividends [4] - In the first nine months of 2025, UPS generated $2.7 billion in free cash flow while paying over $4 billion in dividends, raising questions about its financial flexibility [6] Stock Performance - Wabtec's stock has performed well in 2025, gaining in double digits, while UPS has experienced a double-digit decline [7][9] - UPS's weak stock performance is attributed to revenue pressures from geopolitical uncertainty and inflation, which have negatively impacted consumer sentiment and shipping volumes [10] Company Strategies - Wabtec's stock strength is driven by its focus on advanced technologies, safety improvements, and cost-reduction initiatives, alongside a recovering global rail supply market [11][12] - Wabtec has introduced significant new products and is optimizing its portfolio to enhance profitability and customer retention [12] Financial Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects Wabtec's revenue growth of 6.4% in 2025 and 7% in 2026, with an 18.4% increase in EPS for 2025 [13] - In contrast, UPS is expected to see a 3.4% decline in sales for 2025 and a 10.5% drop in EPS [15] Valuation Comparison - Wabtec trades at a forward price-to-sales multiple of 3.19X, above its five-year median of 2.1X, while UPS trades at a lower multiple of 1.02X, below its five-year median of 1.46 [18] Conclusion - Wabtec's lower payout ratio and stronger stock performance suggest it is a more attractive investment compared to UPS, which faces sustainability concerns regarding its dividend [20][21]