“小非农”恰到好处! 美国劳动力市场温和复苏 稳住降息预期

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the U.S. labor market is showing signs of moderate recovery, with December's private sector employment increasing by 41,000, suggesting resilience in the economy as it approaches 2026, which may support the narrative of a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy [1][4] - The ADP report highlights that the growth in private sector employment is primarily driven by the education, healthcare, and leisure and hospitality sectors, while professional services and manufacturing sectors have seen declines [5] - Despite a slight increase in unemployment rates and a cooling labor market, the data does not suggest a rapid deterioration, maintaining a balance that does not significantly alter market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [4][6] Group 2 - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is expected to have a significant impact on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, with analysts predicting a potential rate cut if the unemployment rate rises to 4.7% [7] - Analysts from Citigroup suggest that the ongoing weakness in the labor market, combined with persistent inflation, may compel the Federal Reserve to reassess its stance on interest rates, with a forecast of a total of 75 basis points in rate cuts this year [7][8] - The overall trend indicates that if the labor market continues to weaken, the Federal Reserve is likely to resume its rate-cutting process, supported by a macroeconomic backdrop of rising unemployment and cooling service sector inflation [8]