Core Viewpoint - The nickel market is currently experiencing a significant upward trend, with prices expected to continue rising, leading to a sustained bullish phase in the nickel industry [1]. Group 1: Nickel Price Surge - On January 7, the global nickel market saw a dramatic surge, with nickel prices skyrocketing, resulting in a strong performance across the Hong Kong nickel sector [2]. - Market funds heavily flowed into Zhongwei Co., which opened with a gap and surged by 17% within minutes, with total trading volume reaching 2.808 billion [2]. - Other companies like Xinjiang Xinxin Mining and Likin Resources also experienced substantial price increases, with Xinjiang Xinxin rising from approximately 3% at the open to 12.28% at close [2]. Group 2: Supply Constraints and Market Dynamics - The recent price increase is primarily driven by Indonesia's reduction of nickel ore quotas, which is expected to significantly impact supply [4]. - Indonesia plans to cut its nickel ore production target from 379 million tons to 250 million tons by 2026, a reduction of 34%, to control oversupply and support prices [4]. - Analysts predict that if Indonesia's quota approvals align with plans, a nickel shortage by 2026 is likely, leading to a significant valuation recovery across the industry [4]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The nickel market's transition from oversupply to a balanced state is contingent on supply-side adjustments, with Indonesia's policies being a critical factor [5]. - The Indonesian Nickel Smelter Association forecasts domestic nickel ore demand to reach between 340 million to 350 million tons by 2026, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [5]. - Long-term projections suggest that nickel prices are entering a bullish phase, with a continuous upward price trend expected, which is a primary reason for the influx of market capital [5]. Group 4: Key Nickel Resource Companies - Zhongwei Co. (300919.SZ) / Zhongwei New Materials (02579.HK) is recognized as a leading integrated player in the nickel sector, holding significant rights to nickel resources in Indonesia and establishing a vertical supply chain [6]. - Likin Resources (02245.HK) has a comprehensive industry chain covering nickel trading, smelting production, and equipment manufacturing, with significant production capacity expected to ramp up by 2026 [6].