万家基金贺方舟：白银理论上还有较大上行空间

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance of the silver market, driven by expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve starting in September 2025, which lowers the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like silver and suppresses the dollar's value, thereby boosting silver prices denominated in dollars [1] - Geopolitical risks have increased, leading to silver, like gold, attracting safe-haven investments, while the trend of global central banks increasing their gold holdings indirectly enhances the appeal of precious metals [1] - On the supply and demand side, silver has a rigid industrial demand, particularly from cutting-edge technology sectors, as it is the best conductor of electricity on Earth and is irreplaceable in electric vehicles, photovoltaics, AI servers, and 5G communications [1] Group 2 - The global silver market has been in a supply-demand deficit for several consecutive years, with over 70% of silver being a byproduct of mining copper, lead, and zinc, making it difficult for production to quickly increase in response to rising silver prices, a phenomenon referred to as the "byproduct curse" [1] - Physical inventories, especially the deliverable stocks on the London and New York exchanges, have fallen to historical lows [1] - The gold-silver ratio has decreased from 106 in April to 85, remaining above the historical average range of 40-80, indicating that silver has ample room for price appreciation if gold continues to rise and the ratio moves towards the mean [2]