5 ETF Predictions for 2026

Group 1: ETF Issuer M&A Activity - Goldman Sachs announced the acquisition of Innovator Capital Management for $2 billion, expected to close in Q2 2026, enhancing its ETF offerings in defined outcome ETFs, which have grown to over $80 billion industrywide [2][4] - The acquisition aims to address Goldman's stagnant ETF business by integrating a specialized product suite from Innovator, which has a proven track record [3][4] - Predictions indicate multiple transactions in 2026, with larger asset managers acquiring smaller ETF issuers, highlighting a trend towards consolidation in the ETF industry [5][6] Group 2: Smart Beta ETFs Resurgence - Smart beta ETFs, which combine elements of passive and active management, have seen a resurgence with several asset managers launching new products that align with smart beta principles [7][8] - The smart beta ETF category currently holds approximately $1.1 trillion in assets, with predictions of inflows doubling to $75 billion in 2026, driven by investor interest in systematic, factor-targeted portfolios [11][12] Group 3: Growth of Crypto Index ETFs - Spot crypto ETFs attracted around $35 billion in inflows in 2025, following a favorable regulatory shift in the U.S. under new SEC leadership [13][14] - The crypto index ETF category is expected to triple in assets to over $5 billion in 2026, as more investors seek diversified exposure to cryptocurrencies through index-based products [19] Group 4: International Equity ETFs - International equity ETFs experienced record inflows of approximately $250 billion in 2025, surpassing the previous record of $198 billion in 2021, with expectations for further growth in 2026 [24][26] - Factors such as last year's international outperformance and stretched U.S. equity valuations may drive reallocations towards international equity ETFs [26][27] Group 5: Fixed Income ETFs - Fixed income ETFs saw inflows of roughly $450 billion in 2025, significantly exceeding the previous record, with predictions for continued growth in 2026 [29][31] - Key drivers for this growth include capital migrating from money market funds and expectations of lower interest rates, which may prompt advisors to reallocate portfolios towards fixed income ETFs [32][35]