美国劳动力市场再现降温迹象 11月职位空缺数降至一年多来最低水平

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market shows signs of cooling, with job openings unexpectedly declining for the second consecutive month in November to 7.146 million, below the October level and significantly under the market expectation of 7.61 million, marking the lowest level since September 2024 [1] - The total number of job openings remained around 7.1 million, with hiring and total separations both stable at 5.1 million in November. The voluntary quit rate was approximately 3.2 million, while layoffs and discharges numbered around 1.7 million, indicating limited overall fluctuations [1][2] - The JOLTS report, released monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), focuses on labor demand, contrasting with the unemployment rate that reflects labor supply. A decrease in job openings is interpreted as a sign of weakening demand [1] Group 2 - From a long-term perspective, JOLTS data shows a downward trend in job openings, hiring, and voluntary quits since mid-2022, with job openings experiencing the most significant decline. Since September 2024, hiring and quit numbers have stabilized, but job openings continue to trend downward [2] - The ratio of job openings to unemployed individuals is a critical indicator of labor market tightness. In November, there were approximately 7.831 million unemployed individuals and 7.146 million job openings, resulting in a ratio of 0.91 job openings per unemployed person, significantly lower than pre-pandemic levels and the lowest since March 2021 [2] - The job openings rate in November fell to 4.5%, down from 4.7% in October, and decreased by approximately 885,000 positions compared to the same month last year. Notably, sectors such as accommodation and food services, transportation and warehousing, utilities, and wholesale trade saw significant reductions in job openings, while construction added about 90,000 positions [2] Group 3 - In November, the hiring rate was 3.2%, slightly lower than in October, while the voluntary quit rate increased to 2.0%, with notable increases in quits within the accommodation and food services sector. The layoff and discharge rate was 1.1%, slightly below October, with declines in layoffs in healthcare, accommodation, food services, and local government sectors [3] - Analyzing the business cycle, the six-month moving average indicates that job openings remain higher than hiring numbers but have returned to pre-pandemic levels. Both hiring and quitting rates are significantly below historical highs, while layoffs and discharges have been slowly rising but remain slightly below pre-pandemic levels [3] - Analysts suggest that the quit rate typically inversely correlates with the layoff rate, reflecting worker confidence and the economic cycle stage. However, it is important to note that JOLTS data has a limited historical span and monthly data can be volatile, warranting caution in overinterpretation based on single-month data [3]