中国咖啡市场“变阵”拉开序幕

Core Insights - The Chinese coffee market is experiencing intense competition, shifting from price wars to a focus on supply chain management, digital operations, and penetration into lower-tier markets [1][2][9] - The transformation in coffee consumption culture is evident, with coffee evolving from a "social consumption" to a "daily consumption" product [1][2] Market Dynamics - Domestic brands like Luckin Coffee have disrupted the market traditionally dominated by international players such as Starbucks and Costa by leveraging delivery and digital ordering models [2][3] - The proportion of consumers drinking coffee during daily activities has reached 47.89% [2] - The per capita annual coffee consumption in China is projected to rise from 6 cups in 2016 to 22 cups by 2024, with significant growth in second and third-tier cities [2] Brand Expansion - Major coffee brands such as Luckin, Kudi, and others have surpassed 10,000 stores, with Luckin nearing 30,000 locations [3] - Starbucks operates approximately 8,000 stores in China after 26 years, while some mid-tier brands have seen slower growth or even a decline in store numbers [3] Strategic Shifts - International brands are seeking strategic partnerships and restructuring to adapt to the changing market landscape, with Starbucks forming a joint venture with Boyu Capital to enhance local market expertise [8] - The competition is shifting from brand premium to efficiency and scale, with domestic brands likely to dominate the market [4] Pricing Trends - Coffee prices have been declining, with average consumer spending on coffee dropping from 41 yuan in September 2023 to 26 yuan by September 2025 [6] - The percentage of coffee shops with prices below 15 yuan has increased from 29.8% to 36.9% within a year [6] Challenges and Innovations - Coffee brands face challenges such as high costs, price pressures, and severe product homogeneity, leading to decreased consumer loyalty [7] - Brands are exploring various strategies to enhance value, including launching budget sub-brands and utilizing technology to reduce costs [7] Supply Chain Importance - The competition is increasingly focused on supply chain integration, with companies aiming to control costs and ensure quality from sourcing to retail [9][10] - Fluctuations in coffee bean prices have prompted brands to secure long-term procurement agreements and invest in roasting facilities to stabilize costs [9][10] Future Outlook - The coffee industry is expected to undergo a "de-bubbling" reshuffle, leading to increased market concentration and the emergence of brands that leverage unique supply chains and localized operations [11] - The market is transitioning from price-driven competition to efficiency-driven value competition, emphasizing the need for brands to establish comprehensive value chains [11]