央行定调“保持流动性充裕” 业界预计今年或降息2次

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, focusing on promoting high-quality economic development and reasonable price recovery as key considerations for monetary policy [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Implementation - The PBOC plans to utilize various monetary policy tools, including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reductions, to maintain ample liquidity in the market [1]. - The focus is on ensuring that the social comprehensive financing cost remains at a low level, with an emphasis on the transmission mechanism of monetary policy [1][2]. Group 2: Interest Rate Adjustments - It is expected that the PBOC will lower policy interest rates, including those for personal housing provident fund loans, which will lead to a decrease in residential mortgage rates, consumer loan rates, and business loan rates [2]. - The anticipated interest rate cuts are projected to be between 20 to 30 basis points, with two cuts expected in 2026, one in the first half and another in the second half of the year [2]. Group 3: Liquidity Management - The PBOC will primarily rely on Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) and reverse repos to inject medium-term liquidity into the market, while also utilizing open market operations to ensure long-term liquidity [3]. - This approach aims to keep market liquidity abundant and facilitate the smooth issuance of government bonds, encouraging financial institutions to increase credit supply [3].