Signet Shines as Lab-Grown Diamonds Reshape Jewelry Demand

Core Insights - Lab-grown diamonds (LGDs) are significantly transforming the fashion jewelry market, with Signet Jewelers Limited (SIG) positioned as a key beneficiary of this trend [1][2]. Sales Performance - In Q3 of fiscal 2026, Signet achieved a 3% year-over-year same-store sales growth, marking its third consecutive quarter of positive comparable sales [2][10]. - The three largest brands of Signet—Kay, Zales, and Jared—experienced a combined 6% same-store sales increase, reflecting strong performance in both bridal and fashion categories [2][10]. Market Trends - LGDs now account for approximately 15% of fashion jewelry sales, nearly doubling from the previous year, driven primarily by younger and mid-tier consumers [3][10]. - The average unit retail (AUR) for fashion jewelry increased by 8% year-over-year, supported by a favorable mix towards higher-AUR LGD fashion and rising gold prices [4][10]. Margin Expansion - Signet reported an 80 basis points increase in merchandise margin, aided by refined pricing strategies, reduced promotions, and a favorable shift towards LGD fashion [6][10]. Future Outlook - Management anticipates continued growth for LGDs as a significant driver of fashion category expansion, indicating a long runway for this segment [6]. Valuation Metrics - Signet's stock has increased by 15.9% over the past six months, slightly underperforming the industry growth of 16.6% [7]. - The forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio for Signet is 0.55, which is lower than the industry average of 0.96 [8]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Signet's fiscal 2026 earnings suggests a year-over-year increase of 3.1%, with an 11.3% growth projected for fiscal 2027 [11].