Cameco Surges 99% in a Year: How to Play the Stock in 2026?

Core Insights - Cameco Corporation (CCJ) has experienced a significant stock surge of 98.7% over the past year, outperforming the Zacks Mining - Miscellaneous industry growth of 41% and the Basic Materials sector's 32.8% increase, while the S&P 500 rose by 18.9% [1][4]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Cameco reported total revenues of CAD 615 million ($446 million), a decline of 14.7% year-over-year, attributed to lower volumes across both uranium and fuel services segments [7]. - The company achieved a 2% increase in uranium production to 4.4 million pounds, with production from Cigar Lake rising by 47% year-over-year to 2.2 million pounds, while production from McArthur River/Key Lake fell by 21% to 2.2 million pounds [7]. - Uranium sales volume decreased by 16% year-over-year to 6.1 million pounds, leading to a 12.8% drop in uranium revenues to CAD 523 million ($379 million) despite a 4% increase in average realized prices [8]. - Fuel services production fell by 3% to 3.1 million kgUs, with sales volume plunging 46% to 1.9 million kgUs, resulting in a 24% revenue drop to CAD 91 million ($66 million) [9]. - Adjusted earnings rose by 17% year-over-year to five cents per share in Q3 [9]. Production Outlook - Cameco has narrowed its 2025 uranium deliveries target to 32-34 million pounds from a previous range of 31-34 million pounds, projecting uranium revenues of CAD 2.8-3.0 billion based on an average realized price of $87.00 per pound [15]. - The company maintains its expected share of production from the Cigar Lake mine at 9.8 million pounds, while the McArthur River mine's production outlook has been revised to 9.8-10.5 million pounds due to development delays [13][14]. Valuation and Market Position - CCJ's stock is currently trading at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 17.92, significantly higher than the industry average of 1.44, indicating a stretched valuation [20]. - Despite this premium valuation, Cameco's stock is trading lower than Energy Fuels, which has a forward price-to-sales ratio of 41.11, while Centrus Energy is at 11.13 [21]. Strategic Partnerships and Future Growth - Cameco is well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand for nuclear energy, supported by geopolitical events and energy security concerns [22]. - The company is extending the mine life of Cigar Lake to 2036 and ramping up output at McArthur River/Key Lake towards its licensed annual capacity of 25 million pounds [23]. - A strategic partnership with Brookfield and the U.S. government aims to accelerate the deployment of nuclear reactor technologies, with an aggregate investment of at least $80 billion expected to create significant growth opportunities [25].