Merck & Co.'s Q4 2025 Earnings: What to Expect

Core Viewpoint - Merck & Co., Inc. is set to report its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings for 2025, with analysts projecting a significant increase in earnings per share (EPS) compared to the previous year [1][2]. Financial Performance - Analysts expect Merck to report a profit of $2.08 per share on a diluted basis for Q4 2025, reflecting a 20.9% increase from $1.72 per share in the same quarter last year [2]. - For the full year, the expected EPS is $8.99, which is a 17.5% increase from $7.65 in fiscal 2024, but a decline of 6.8% is anticipated for fiscal 2026, bringing the EPS down to $8.38 [3]. Stock Performance - Over the past 52 weeks, Merck's stock has increased by 8.4%, underperforming the S&P 500 Index's 16.2% gains and the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund's 11.6% returns [4]. - The stock's underperformance is attributed to regulatory scrutiny, pricing pressures, and patent expirations for key drugs, alongside slowing growth in Keytruda and declining sales of Winrevair and Gardasil in China [5]. Recent Earnings Report - On October 30, 2025, Merck reported an adjusted EPS of $2.58, exceeding Wall Street's expectations of $2.36, with revenue reaching $17.3 billion, surpassing forecasts of $17.1 billion [6]. - The company anticipates full-year adjusted EPS between $8.93 and $8.98, with revenue expected to be in the range of $64.5 billion to $65 billion [6]. Analyst Ratings - The consensus opinion on Merck stock is moderately bullish, with a "Moderate Buy" rating. Out of 26 analysts, 14 recommend a "Strong Buy," one suggests a "Moderate Buy," and 11 give a "Hold" rating [7]. - The average analyst price target for Merck is $111.35, indicating a potential upside of 3.6% from current levels [7].