比特币收复9万美元关口 上涨行情的基础依然脆弱

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has recovered the $90,000 mark, but the underlying basis for this rally remains fragile as traders maintain a cautious stance [1][3]. Market Sentiment - Despite Bitcoin's rebound this week, there are few clear signs of sustained optimism in the cryptocurrency derivatives market [1][3]. - The recent inflow of funds into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has not been matched by an overall improvement in market structure, indicating that the price recovery appears more like a pause in the downtrend rather than a true resurgence [1][3]. Derivatives Market Analysis - Most bets in the Bitcoin perpetual and regular contracts are still concentrated on short-term contracts, reflecting a cautious sentiment among traders [1][3]. - Demand for longer-term futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, traditionally seen as a gauge of institutional investor interest, remains low [1][3]. Research Insights - K33 Research's Vetle Lunde noted that while there are signs of improved sentiment, the overall mood remains cautious despite recent upward movements [1][3]. - Key indicators such as spot trading volume, volatility, and derivatives leverage are still close to their lows from December, with 86% of open contracts concentrated in near-month expirations [1][3]. - The funding rate for perpetual contracts, another key measure of risk appetite, is also low, indicating limited bullish positioning [1][3].