Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang·2026-01-08 00:01Core Viewpoint - The global oil market is expected to enter a supply surplus cycle by 2026, with the IEA predicting a surplus of 3.84 million barrels per day, leading to a systematic decline in oil price levels [1] Group 1: Oil Market Outlook - By 2026, the global oil market will officially transition into a supply surplus phase [1] - The anticipated surplus is projected to reach 3.84 million barrels per day according to IEA estimates [1] - A systematic downward adjustment in oil price levels is expected to be the main trend [1] Group 2: Sector Opportunities - Geopolitical conflicts, sanctions, and inventory fluctuations will still create short-term trading opportunities [1] - Structural opportunities are shifting focus from "oil prices" to "companies" [1] - High refining margins are expected to persist, benefiting the refining sector [1] Group 3: Specific Industry Insights - U.S. shale oil production is showing resilience around the $60 per barrel mark [1] - The expansion of LNG and rising electricity demand are driving increased mergers and acquisitions in the natural gas sector [1] - These factors represent key beneficiary directions in a low oil price environment [1]