Core Insights - The report from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) anticipates a steady increase in the fundraising scale of private placements, with competitive projects expected to reach 165 billion yuan by 2026 [1][4]. Group 1: Market Overview - In 2025, the private placement market saw an increase in scale, with a total fundraising amount of 714.13 billion yuan, including 520 billion yuan raised by state-owned banks [2]. - The average discount for projects completed in 2025 was 12.7%, slightly down from the previous year, indicating a recovery in pricing competition [2]. - The average return on projects in 2025 improved to 36.3%, attracting more investors to the private placement market [2]. Group 2: Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from private placement projects in 2025 primarily came from issuance discount gains and market returns during the lock-up period [2]. - The average discount return rate for 2025 was 15.8%, contributing significantly to the overall project returns [2]. - The excess performance of individual stocks during the lock-up period contributed positively, with a return rate of approximately 2.6% for projects issued in 2025 [2]. Group 3: Investor Preferences - The participation rate of various investors in private placement projects has remained relatively stable, with public funds being the main source of capital [3]. - In 2025, public funds, foreign capital, and securities institutions showed a preference for projects with higher discount rates [3]. Group 4: 2026 Outlook - CICC expects the fundraising scale for private placements in 2026 to remain steady, with competitive projects projected to reach around 165 billion yuan [4]. - The expected return from private placement projects in 2026 could provide a safety margin of approximately 10 percentage points [4]. - The revenue components for 2026 are expected to include issuance discount gains, market returns during the lock-up period, and excess returns from individual stocks, with historical data suggesting an average discount rate of about 13.8% [4].
中金：预期2026年定增市场规模稳中有升 项目收益仍可期待