实体经济物流业务需求持续活跃

Core Viewpoint - The logistics industry in China is experiencing sustained demand from the real economy, with a notable recovery in the logistics business activity index, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in 2025 [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - The logistics industry prosperity index for December 2025 is reported at 52.4%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.5 percentage points, marking the highest index for the year [1] - The average prosperity index for the logistics industry in 2025 is 50.8%, with quarterly averages showing a steady increase: 50.2%, 50.8%, 50.9%, and 51.3% [1] - The business volume index for December 2025 is also at 52.4%, showing a continuous rise and a 1.7 percentage point increase from October [2] Group 2: Regional Performance - The business volume indices for December 2025 across three major regions are as follows: Eastern region at 51.7%, Central region at 52%, and Western region at 52.9%, with respective month-on-month increases of 1.2, 1.0, and 1.7 percentage points [2] Group 3: Market Expectations - The business activity expectation index for December 2025 stands at 54.8%, with the fourth quarter average remaining at 55, indicating stable high market expectations [2] - The new orders index for December 2025 is at 51.8%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.2 percentage points, indicating ongoing expansion in new orders [2] Group 4: Consumer Sector Insights - The online retail sales of physical goods reached 11.8 trillion yuan in the first 11 months of 2025, growing by 5.7% and accounting for 25.9% of total retail sales [3] - The logistics indices for railway transport, multimodal transport, and postal express services remain above 55, indicating high activity levels in these sectors [3] Group 5: Operational Dynamics - Equipment utilization and capital turnover indices showed month-on-month increases of 1.3 and 0.1 percentage points, respectively, with the average equipment utilization index for the fourth quarter at 49.1% [4] - The average profit index for main business operations in the fourth quarter is reported at 47%, reflecting a 0.6 percentage point increase from the previous quarter [4] Group 6: Future Outlook - The logistics industry is expected to maintain a high level of fixed asset investment completion index above 55%, with business activity expectation index at 54.8%, indicating a stable and positive outlook for the future [4]