液化石油气：供增需减拖累价格

Group 1 - The LPG supply in the US and the Middle East is expected to increase by 2026, which, combined with weak downstream petrochemical demand, will exert downward pressure on LPG prices [1] - The average CFR Northeast Asia price for propane is projected to drop significantly to $547.92 per ton in 2025, down from $628.23 per ton in 2024 [1] - The LPG market is currently buyer-dominated, and the supply-demand balance is expected to improve in 2026 compared to 2025, although potential demand collapse could lead to significant market volatility [1][3] Group 2 - The new supply in the LPG market is likely to come primarily from the US Enterprise Products Partners, with expectations of lower propane spot prices, especially in the second half of 2026 [2] - Enterprise Products Partners has recently launched a 550-mile pipeline with a capacity of 600,000 barrels per day and plans to commission additional gas processing plants in 2026 [2] - The impact of new PDH facilities on LPG demand is expected to be limited, as the scale of new capacity is not as significant as in previous years, leading to reduced expectations for demand support [2] Group 3 - The global petrochemical market is anticipated to remain sluggish in 2026, with ongoing pressure from new capacity and slow demand recovery [3] - Geopolitical factors, weather changes, and shipping rate fluctuations are expected to influence the Asian LPG market in 2026 [3] - The current lack of long-term contract orders may lead to increased activity in the spot market, with prices potentially fluctuating rapidly based on supply and demand changes [3]