地缘冲突缓和，黄金多空分歧加大，金价高位波动

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices, influenced by geopolitical developments and market dynamics, highlighting the need for cautious investment strategies in the precious metals sector [1]. Market Performance - On January 7, gold prices fell from a high of $4,512 to a low of $4,432, before slightly recovering at the end of the trading session [1]. - COMEX gold futures closed down 0.65% at $4,467.1 per ounce, while the China Gold ETF (518850) also fell by 0.65%, and the gold stock ETF (159562) decreased by 1.36%. In contrast, the non-ferrous metals ETF (516650) rose by 0.39% [1]. Geopolitical Influence - Ukrainian President Zelensky indicated during a visit to Cyprus that negotiations with U.S. and European partners have reached a new level, with the potential to end the conflict with Russia by mid-2026 [1]. Market Dynamics - The beginning of the year saw significant volatility in gold prices, following remarkable increases in 2025, where gold surged over 60% and silver over 140%, leading to substantial profit-taking [1]. - The current market behavior reflects a "surge and plunge" pattern, indicating investor uncertainty and differing opinions on future price movements [1]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to avoid a "blind chasing" mentality and focus on upcoming economic indicators, particularly the U.S. non-farm payroll report, which will directly impact the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and, consequently, the short-term trends in precious metals [1]. - If a prolonged rate-cutting cycle is confirmed, the bullish trend in precious metals is expected to continue in the long term [1].