Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-08 01:19Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the non-ferrous metals market, particularly the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876), is attributed to a combination of long-term supply rigidity, new production demand, global liquidity easing, and strategic resource upgrades, marking a rare multi-dimensional resonance in the market over the past decade [5][12]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 7, the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) saw an intraday price increase of over 1.6%, closing up 0.38%, achieving a four-day consecutive rise with a total trading volume of 82.93 million yuan [1][10]. - The ETF has experienced a net inflow of 140 million yuan over the past five days, indicating strong investor interest [1][10]. - As of January 7, the ETF's total scale reached 1.019 billion yuan, marking its first time surpassing the 1 billion yuan threshold and setting a new historical high, leading among three similar ETF products in the market [3][14]. Group 2: Market Drivers - Macroeconomic factors include expectations from the Federal Reserve for further interest rate cuts exceeding 100 basis points this year, which could create a favorable environment for the non-ferrous market [5][12]. - On the industrial front, the Chinese government is considering tightening export license reviews for medium and heavy rare earth items, while LME copper and nickel prices have reached record highs, suggesting a positive outlook for the first quarter of 2026 [5][12]. - Fundamental performance is strong, with four major companies under the ETF, including Zijin Mining, forecasting double-digit growth in net profits for 2025, with Zijin Mining expected to achieve a net profit of 51 to 52 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 59% to 62% [6][12]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Looking ahead to 2026, continued easing of liquidity and the ongoing interest rate cut cycle in the U.S. are expected to support non-ferrous metal prices, with supply constraints and increased demand from traditional and emerging sectors, such as AI and energy storage, likely to drive prices higher [6][13]. - The Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF and its linked funds cover a wide range of sectors including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing for better exposure to the overall market dynamics [15].