智通财经网·2026-01-08 01:33Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates a trend of increasing allocation of insurance funds to stocks, projected to reach approximately 3.6 trillion yuan by Q3 2025, accounting for 10% of total insurance funds. This shift is expected to increasingly influence the style characteristics of the A-share market [1]. Group 1: Insurance Fund Allocation Trends - The scale of insurance funds allocated to stocks is characterized by a "steady then rising, accelerating upward" trend, with the balance reaching about 3.6 trillion yuan and the stock allocation ratio increasing to 10% by Q3 2025 [1]. - The estimated incremental allocation of insurance funds to stock assets in 2025 is 618.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 25% after considering changes in A-share market capitalization [1]. - Since the second half of 2024, policy guidance has supported stable and continuous entry of insurance funds into the market, with a systematic and combinatorial approach to policy implementation [1]. Group 2: Insurance Asset Management Product Trends - The number of stock-type insurance asset management products has shown a significant upward trend, increasing from 110 in 2019 to over 260 by 2025, with a steady annual rise [2]. - Historical performance of insurance asset management products indicates that the style characteristics of insurance holdings are not constant but shift with market conditions. The correlation with low-volatility dividend strategies has been positive for most periods, significantly enhancing in 2024, indicating a defensive and high-dividend low-volatility focus, while sensitivity to technology growth and aggressive styles has been relatively low or negative. However, a notable change is expected post-2025 towards growth and small-cap stock allocations [2]. Group 3: Timing Strategies Based on Style Correlation Extremes - From a historical cycle perspective, the allocation of insurance funds to A-share styles exhibits extreme reversal characteristics, where the correlation between insurance asset management product returns and market styles reaches extremes, signaling a shift in market index styles [3]. - Backtesting results show that both single styles (dividend or technology) relative to the CSI All Share Index and the excess returns of dividends relative to technology have demonstrated good timing effectiveness. Key timing points were accurately captured, indicating a shift from growth to value in 2021 and from value to growth in January 2024 [3]. - As of December 19, 2025, the growth style is dominant over value, with insurance funds' allocation to low-volatility dividend styles in a declining phase and technology research styles in an ascending phase, suggesting a continuation of the growth style [3].