Lower deposit rates, liquidity to shore up bank profits in Q3

Core Insights - Banking profitability is expected to remain stable in the third quarter due to falling deposit rates offsetting recent policy rate cuts and supporting net interest margins (NIMs) [10] - The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) 100 basis points cash reserve ratio (CRR) cut is anticipated to ease liquidity and support bank margins, releasing ₹1.87 lakh crore of interest-free funds for the banking sector [10][3] - Credit growth for large lenders has exceeded the banking system's growth of 10% to 12%, indicating strong demand for loans [10] Banking Sector Performance - Analysts predict that profitability will improve due to sustained advances growth, higher fee income, and lower credit costs, despite a decline in the yield on advances (YOA) [10] - The loan-to-deposit ratios (LDRs) across the banking system reached an all-time high of 81%, highlighting a divergence between credit growth and deposit mobilization, which poses systemic risks [6][10] - Demand for loans is expected to be driven by fast-growing sectors such as MSMEs and mid-corporates, along with retail sectors like gold loans and vehicle finance [7][10] NIM Expectations - NIM outcomes are expected to vary among banks, with some like Axis Bank and Indian Bank likely to report declines, while others such as HDFC and Kotak Mahindra may see expansions [10][6] - The high LDR may force banks to either slow down loan growth or increase deposit rates, both of which could negatively impact banking profits [6][10]