光大期货：1月8日有色金属日报

Copper - Copper prices experienced fluctuations and a decline, with domestic refined copper imports remaining unprofitable. The macroeconomic indicators from the US show a recovery in demand and employment, with the ISM services PMI reaching 54.4, the highest in over a year, and ADP employment increasing by 41,000 jobs [3][8] - LME copper inventory decreased by 2,850 tons to 143,225 tons, while Comex inventory increased by 3,256 tons to 464,910 tons. SHFE copper warehouse receipts rose by 3,203 tons to 96,474 tons [3][8] - Due to high copper prices, terminal orders have slowed, maintaining rigid procurement demand. The market is experiencing increased divergence, with precious metals and non-ferrous sectors cooling down, indicating a potential orderly adjustment beneficial for future trends [3][8] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel fell by 4.21% to $17,655 per ton, while SHFE nickel dropped by 1.44% to 143,280 yuan per ton. LME nickel inventory increased by 20,088 tons to 275,634 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 612 tons to 38,776 tons [9][11] - The Indonesian Nickel Mining Association reported a significant reduction in nickel ore production targets for 2026, down to approximately 250 million tons from 379 million tons in 2025. Vale's Indonesian subsidiary has paused nickel mining due to unapproved production plans [11] - The recent rise in nickel prices is driven by market sentiment and Indonesian policy changes, with primary nickel production increasing by 18.5% to 37,200 tons. However, hedging demand may exert pressure on prices [11] Aluminum & Aluminum Alloys - Aluminum oxide prices showed a slight decline, with AO2605 settling at 2,889 yuan per ton, down 0.69%. SHFE aluminum also experienced a decline, with AL2602 at 24,135 yuan per ton, down 1.21% [12] - The SMM aluminum oxide price fell to 2,681 yuan per ton, while aluminum ingot spot prices saw a discount of 200 yuan per ton. The market is facing inventory pressure due to increased shipments from Xinjiang and reduced outflows from major sales areas [12] - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has reignited enthusiasm for precious metals, contributing to rising aluminum prices. However, the market faces challenges with inventory accumulation and potential price increases [12] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a slight increase, with the main contract at 8,980 yuan per ton, up 1.07%. The reference price for industrial silicon remained stable at 9,603 yuan per ton [13] - Polysilicon prices experienced a decline, with the main contract at 58,300 yuan per ton, down 2.13%. The market is facing challenges due to reduced production quotas and environmental regulations impacting supply [13] - The industry anticipates a potential reduction in polysilicon supply due to self-regulation and coordinated production cuts, which may provide strong support for prices [13] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures rose by 4.54% to 142,300 yuan per ton, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices increasing by 6,000 yuan to 133,500 yuan per ton. Industrial-grade lithium carbonate also saw a rise of 5,750 yuan to 130,000 yuan per ton [14][15] - Weekly lithium production increased by 259 tons to 22,420 tons, with lithium spodumene and lithium mica production also rising. However, forecasts indicate a 1.2% decrease in lithium carbonate production for January 2026 [14][15] - Concerns over actual lithium resource supply due to geopolitical and policy factors persist, with expectations that price increases may be more easily transmitted downstream, although acceptance of high prices by end-users remains uncertain [15]