光大期货：1月8日软商品日报

Sugar Industry - As of December 31, 2025, Yunnan Province processed a total of 3.461 million tons of sugarcane, an increase from 2.8135 million tons in the same period last season [2] - Sugar production reached 392,300 tons, up from 326,900 tons year-on-year, with a sugar extraction rate of 11.34%, slightly down from 11.62% [2] - Cumulative sales of new sugar amounted to 281,400 tons, compared to 267,100 tons last year, with a sales rate of 71.72%, down from 81.70% [2] - Monthly sugar sales were 249,100 tons, an increase from 234,400 tons in the previous year, while industrial inventory stood at 110,900 tons, up from 59,800 tons [2] - Spot prices for sugar in Guangxi range from 5,320 to 5,380 yuan per ton, up by 10 to 30 yuan, while Yunnan's prices range from 5,140 to 5,230 yuan per ton, up by 10 to 20 yuan [2][9] - The sugar market is experiencing a slight rebound due to a warm investment sentiment, with short-term fluctuations expected [9] Cotton Industry - On Wednesday, ICE cotton prices fell by 0.31% to 64.86 cents per pound, while Zheng cotton's main contract rose by 1.83% to 15,035 yuan per ton, with an increase in open interest by 9,611 contracts to 925,500 contracts [10] - The international market is facing ongoing macroeconomic disturbances, with the US dollar index rising, leading to fluctuations in cotton prices [10] - Domestic market sentiment remains positive, with expectations for future policy developments, although the pace of open interest growth has slowed [10] - Short-term upward momentum for Zheng cotton is anticipated, but there may be divergence at higher levels; medium to long-term cotton prices may still have room to rise [10][4] - Key future focus areas include inventory replenishment by downstream textile enterprises before the Spring Festival and upcoming macroeconomic news, including new cotton target price subsidy policies expected around April 10 [4][10]