华泰期货：央行黄金储备持续增长 美国“小非农”数据升温

Core Viewpoint - China's foreign exchange reserves have reached a ten-year high, while gold reserves have increased for 14 consecutive months, indicating a strong financial position and potential for investment opportunities [2][12]. Domestic Market Analysis - As of the end of December 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $335.79 billion, an increase of $11.5 billion from the previous month, marking the highest level since December 2015 [2]. - Gold reserves reached 74.15 million ounces, with an increase of 30,000 ounces, continuing a streak of 14 months of growth [2]. International Market Analysis - In the U.S., the ADP report indicated a modest recovery in private sector employment, with an increase of 41,000 jobs in December, reversing the previous month's decline but falling short of market expectations [2]. - The JOLTS report for November 2025 showed job openings dropped to 7.146 million, significantly below the expected 7.6 million, marking the lowest level since September 2024 [2]. Futures Market Overview - On January 7, 2026, the main gold futures contract opened at 1006.00 CNY/gram and closed at 998.90 CNY/gram, a decrease of 0.61% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 41,087 contracts [15]. - The main silver futures contract opened at 19,460.00 CNY/kilogram and closed at 19,290.00 CNY/kilogram, down 0.83%, with a trading volume of 2,172,110 contracts [15]. Bond Market Insights - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remained stable at 4.148% on January 7, 2026, with the yield spread between 10-year and 2-year bonds unchanged at 0.678% [16]. Gold and Silver Holdings - As of January 7, 2026, gold ETF holdings were stable at 1,067.13 tons, while silver ETF holdings decreased by 236 tons to 16,118 tons [18]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange reported a gold trading volume of 63,134 kilograms, up 42.67%, while silver trading volume decreased by 6.05% to 823,590 kilograms [20]. Market Strategy - For gold, a cautiously bullish outlook is suggested, with prices expected to maintain a strong oscillation between 990 CNY/gram and 1,015 CNY/gram due to rising market risk sentiment and central bank purchases [21]. - For silver, a similar cautiously bullish stance is recommended, with expected price fluctuations between 18,500 CNY/kilogram and 20,000 CNY/kilogram, despite a recent price pullback [22].