流动性宽松与需求强劲共振，机构把脉2026：铜铝金等战略金属配置价值凸显

Core Viewpoint - In 2026, the market is expected to focus on the allocation value of resource products, particularly copper, aluminum, gold, and strategic metals, amid a mild recovery in the global economy and expectations of liquidity easing [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - The non-ferrous metal sector showed strong performance in 2025, with the non-ferrous metal mining ETF (159690) tracking the CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Mining Index achieving a 104.84% increase, outperforming mainstream non-ferrous thematic indices [1][5]. - The non-ferrous metal sector recorded a 94.73% increase in 2025, leading among the Shenwan first-level industries [5]. - As of January 7, 2026, the non-ferrous mining ETF (159690) experienced a net inflow of nearly 58 million yuan over nine consecutive trading days [1]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Industry Dynamics - The global economy in 2025 exhibited "weak growth, high volatility, and multiple risks," leading to a divergence in major commodity trends, with gold and copper prices supported by safe-haven demand and emerging needs [2][4]. - The credit risk in the non-ferrous metal industry is expected to remain stable overall in 2026, but structural pressures are prominent, particularly for mid and downstream processing enterprises facing low processing fees and squeezed profit margins [4]. - The macroeconomic growth in China is projected to reach 4.9% in 2026, with resilient exports and gradually recovering investments, while commodity consumption may face short-term pressure [4]. Group 3: Profitability and Financial Performance - The non-ferrous metal industry saw a year-on-year net profit growth of 41.43% in the first three quarters of 2025, with the third quarter showing an even larger increase of 50.81% [9][10]. - The CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Mining Index demonstrated greater profit elasticity, with net profit growth rates of 49.48% and 55.62% for the first three quarters and the third quarter, respectively [9][10]. - Key metals such as gold, copper, and aluminum account for 57.4% of the non-ferrous metal mining index, indicating strong long-term support for resource demand driven by energy transition and global easing policies [10].