追问委内瑞拉剧变：石油背后，美国有何图谋?

Group 1 - The military action by the US against Venezuela did not significantly impact the global oil market, with Brent crude oil prices only slightly dropping to $60.80 per barrel after the attack [1][2] - Venezuela's oil production is currently below 1 million barrels per day, accounting for only 1% of global production, due to long-term sanctions and a lack of operational capacity [2][3] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a surplus of 3.85 million barrels per day in global oil supply by 2026, which is a major factor keeping oil prices stable despite geopolitical tensions [3][4] Group 2 - Investors are skeptical about the potential recovery of Venezuela's oil production capacity, as the industry has been severely damaged by years of US sanctions [4][5] - The US's strategic interest in Venezuela's heavy crude oil aligns with its refining capabilities, suggesting a deeper economic motivation behind the military action [10][11] - The US aims to reinforce its "Western Hemisphere First" strategy and maintain dollar hegemony by controlling Venezuelan oil resources, which could stabilize its energy sector and economic position [11][12] Group 3 - Challenges to US plans include the lack of detailed investment strategies and the high political and security risks associated with operating in Venezuela [12][13] - The global shift towards energy transition and the long-term decline in oil demand pose fundamental obstacles to US ambitions in Venezuela [13][14] - The current geopolitical actions highlight the difficulties of maintaining a unipolar system through military means in an increasingly interconnected world [13][14]