特朗普威胁“吞并”格陵兰岛 六种棋局推演

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. interest in Greenland has escalated, with President Trump emphasizing its importance for national security, leading to strong reactions from Denmark and other Nordic countries [1][3][6]. Group 1: U.S. Strategic Interests - The U.S. views Greenland as a critical geographical location for military strategy, particularly in monitoring naval activities in the North Atlantic and Arctic regions [3]. - Greenland is rich in mineral resources, including rare earth elements and potential oil and gas reserves, which are vital for U.S. high-tech industries [4]. - Climate change is making Arctic resource extraction more feasible, and new shipping routes could significantly reduce transportation times between Europe and North America [4]. Group 2: Historical Context - The U.S. has a long history of interest in acquiring Greenland, dating back to proposals in the 19th and 20th centuries, but these efforts have historically been met with resistance [5][6]. - Trump's administration has taken steps that indicate a shift from mere interest to a more aggressive pursuit of control over Greenland [6]. Group 3: Potential Scenarios for U.S. Control - Six potential scenarios for U.S. control over Greenland have been proposed, with the most likely involving pressure on Denmark and Greenland to grant the U.S. expanded rights without full sovereignty [2][10][11]. - The "Palau and Micronesia model" allows a small nation to retain its sovereignty while granting certain powers to a larger nation, which could be a feasible approach for Greenland [10]. - The "Panama Canal lease model" suggests a temporary administrative control arrangement, where the U.S. would manage Greenland while Denmark retains nominal sovereignty [10][11].