PX：油价冲高回落 PX高位震荡对待

Market Overview - On January 6, Asian PX prices rebounded significantly due to a rise in raw material prices and market rumors that some PX plants have no immediate plans to restart, which boosted market sentiment [1] - The spot prices for February were negotiated at $898.5 to $911 per ton, while March prices were at $902 to $911 per ton [1] Profit Analysis - As of January 6, Asian PX prices increased by $19 per ton to $903 per ton, equivalent to a spot price of 7304 RMB per ton [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply: As of January 4, domestic PX operating rates were at 90.6%, while Asian PX operating rates were at 80.9% [1] - Demand: The restart of Dushan Energy's 2.5 million ton capacity and the low-load operation of Zhongtai's 1.2 million ton capacity were noted, with PTA operating rates at 78.1% [1] Market Outlook - Currently, PX profitability is favorable, leading to increased production at some domestic and international PX plants, maintaining high supply levels in January [1] - However, post-New Year, terminal operations are expected to decline, resulting in high supply and weak demand, which may pressure polyester plants to reduce production [1] - It is anticipated that the overall supply-demand balance for PX and PTA will weaken in the first quarter, with PX prices expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival [1]