Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in nickel prices is primarily driven by Indonesia's reduction of nickel ore quotas and macroeconomic sentiment, with geopolitical tensions also contributing to increased discussions around the premium for non-ferrous metals [1] Group 1: Nickel Price Movement - The main nickel futures contract in China reached a new high of 146,150.00 CNY/ton, marking a continuous increase over four weeks [1] - The price increase is attributed to both supply constraints from Indonesia and heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly related to U.S. military actions in Venezuela [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Jinrui Futures indicates that the narrative surrounding Indonesia's nickel ore quota reduction is currently unverified, with existing quotas still usable by mining companies in the first quarter, thus limiting immediate production impacts [1] - The future approval of additional quotas by the Indonesian government remains uncertain, which could affect market dynamics [1] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Zhengxin Futures suggests that the nickel market is experiencing a tug-of-war between expectations of supply contraction and the reality of oversupply [1] - Short-term forecasts indicate that nickel prices may remain strong, influenced by the pace of Indonesian policy implementation and macroeconomic expectations [1] - There are concerns regarding whether the quota policies will be enacted and if downstream demand will recover sufficiently to reduce inventory levels, as sustained high inventory could increase the risk of price corrections [1]
沪镍期货主力合约一度涨停 创2024年6月以来新高
Jin Tou Wang·2026-01-07 02:05