智通财经网·2026-01-07 02:03Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates that MTR Corporation (00066) has a diversified business model, leading to a 20% valuation discount, resulting in an estimated total equity value of HKD 221.3 billion and a target share price of HKD 35.55, representing a 19% upside from the current market value. The initial coverage gives a "Buy" rating [1]. Group 1 - MTR Corporation has grown to become the core operator of Hong Kong's rail transit since its establishment in 1975, listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2000, and merged with Kowloon-Canton Railway Corporation in 2007. The company has expanded globally with projects in Beijing, Hangzhou, and Australia since 2005 [2]. - The Hong Kong SAR government, represented by the Financial Secretary, is the controlling shareholder of MTR Corporation, holding a 74.45% stake, with the remainder owned by public shareholders and institutional investors [2]. Group 2 - The "Rail + Property" development model allows MTR to fund railway projects through land development rights along railway lines, which the government grants to offset the high costs of railway construction. The recovery in the Hong Kong real estate market is expected to boost long-term property development for the company, with significant revenue recognition anticipated in 2025 and 2026 [3]. Group 3 - The company follows a progressive dividend policy, with dividends per share increasing from HKD 1.06 to HKD 1.31 from 2015 to 2024. Despite a loss in 2020, the company maintained its dividend. Significant profit growth in recent years is expected to sustain current dividend levels. Forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are HKD 16.203 billion, HKD 20.166 billion, and HKD 10.138 billion, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12x, 9x, and 19x. The dividend yield for 2025-2027 is projected to be 4.4% each year [4].