华泰期货：甲醇上涨，目前处于弱现实强预期的状态

Core Viewpoint - The MA2605 contract rose by 3.1% due to heightened tensions between the US and Iran, which has led to a rapid increase in methanol prices as Iran is a major producer of methanol [2][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The US Navy's drone activities near the Iranian coast have escalated tensions, raising market concerns about potential military actions against Iran [2][5]. - China's methanol port inventory remains at historically high levels, with previous shipments experiencing delays in unloading, indicating a weak current market reality [5][6]. - The winter maintenance in Iran is expected to lead to a decrease in shipping volumes, with imports anticipated to peak and then decline in January and February [6]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Outlook - The market is currently in a state of weak reality but strong expectations, as traders anticipate a reduction in port inventories [6]. - Downstream demand is affected by seasonal slowdowns, with the inland market experiencing a closure of port return windows and upcoming maintenance on MTO facilities [6]. - The recent price increase is primarily driven by geopolitical conflicts rather than fundamental supply and demand changes [6]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The market's expectation of inventory reduction in January and February is seen as a rational response, suggesting a cautious approach to buying on dips for hedging purposes [6].