华泰期货：铜走强，矿端维持“极紧+高扰动”格局

Group 1: Copper Market Performance - The Shanghai copper market showed significant strength, with the main contract opening at 100,890 CNY/ton and closing at 105,320 CNY/ton, marking a 4.88% increase; the trading volume reached 223,600 lots, with an increase of 7,332 lots in a single day [7][8] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - December copper ore supply is characterized by "zero processing fees" and potential strikes; CSPT has set the long-term benchmark at $0/ton, indicating ongoing tightness in concentrate supply [8] - The spot TC settlement price is at -$44.98/dry ton, reflecting a decrease of $1.3 compared to the previous period; Kaz Minerals has reduced direct supply to China, opting for bidding from traders, with a bid price of -$50, further limiting raw material options for Chinese smelters [8] - The Kamoa project in the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to produce its first batch of anodes by December 29, with significant production increases anticipated only after Q2 2026; the Mantoverde union in Chile has entered a mediation period, with a strike window extending into early January, maintaining high supply disruption risks [8] Group 3: Macroeconomic Context - The ISM manufacturing index in the U.S. for December 2025 slightly declined from 48.2 to 47.9, remaining below 50 for ten consecutive months and reaching a new low since October 2024; new orders have contracted for the fourth month in a row, and employment numbers have decreased for eleven months [3][9] - Weak economic data may continue to prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain a loose monetary policy, which could create a favorable macro environment for copper prices [9] Group 4: Demand Outlook - Currently, the copper market is experiencing tight supply conditions, with external premiums leading to increased refined copper exports; however, demand remains relatively weak due to high prices and holiday factors [9] - If copper prices decline, it is expected that downstream replenishment activity will increase [9]