华泰期货：沪铝上涨，传统季节性淡季是否影响表现？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the upward trend in aluminum prices, driven by geopolitical risks in Venezuela and concerns over overseas resources, alongside a backdrop of de-dollarization [6][7] - On January 6, 2026, the Shanghai aluminum price followed the upward momentum of copper, with the AL2602 contract closing at 24,335 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.29%, and the AD2602 contract closing at 22,865 yuan/ton, up 2.23% [6][7] - The price difference between AL and AD contracts was 1,470 yuan/ton, which increased by 235 yuan/ton compared to the previous day's close [6][7] Group 2 - The copper-aluminum ratio remains above 4, indicating that the rising copper prices are likely to lead to increased demand for aluminum [7] - The household appliance industry's shift towards aluminum over copper is expected to drive aluminum consumption, potentially leading to an unexpected increase [7] - Short-term micro data appears weak as the market enters a traditional seasonal off-peak period, with social inventory beginning to accumulate and spot discounts continuing to widen [7] Group 3 - Despite short-term challenges, the long-term macro outlook remains positive, with expectations for continued monetary and fiscal easing [7] - In light of weakening consumption, a strategy of going long on aluminum while shorting aluminum alloys may be worth considering [7]