Market Overview - As of January 7, coking coal futures showed a strong upward trend, with the near-month contract rising by 51.5 (+4.75%) to 1135.0 and the main contract increasing by 68.0 (+6.2%) to 1164.0 [1] Supply - As of December 31, the capacity utilization rate of 88 sampled coal mines was 79.76%, down by 2.89% month-on-month, with raw coal production at 805.56 million tons per week, a decrease of 29.17 million tons week-on-week [2] - The inventory of raw coal stood at 222.15 million tons, up by 17.5 million tons week-on-week, while the production of premium coal was 410.26 million tons per week, down by 17.43 million tons week-on-week [2] Demand - As of December 31, the average daily output of coke from independent coking plants was 62.7 million tons, with a slight increase of 0.1 million tons week-on-week [3] - The average daily pig iron output was 227.43 million tons, up by 0.85 million tons week-on-week, with a blast furnace operating rate of 78.94%, an increase of 0.62% [3] Inventory - As of December 31, the total inventory of coking coal (including mines, washing plants, coking plants, steel mills, ports, and terminals) increased by 59.7 million tons to 4104.3 million tons [4] - The inventory at 523 mines rose by 1.5 million tons to 528.8 million tons, while the inventory at 314 washing plants increased by 1.6 million tons to 531.6 million tons [4] Market Sentiment - The strong rise in coking coal futures was noted, with the main contract hitting the limit up. However, the spot prices in Shanxi showed weak performance, and the trading environment remains cautious with high auction failure rates [5] - The supply side is seeing a slight recovery in daily coal production as mines resume operations, but sales remain sluggish, leading to inventory accumulation [5] - On the demand side, steel mills are experiencing reduced losses, and pig iron production is stable, although coking profits are declining, leading to a slight decrease in operational rates [5] Policy and Strategy - The main policy focus remains on ensuring coal supply for power plants, with reports indicating that 26 coal mines in Shaanxi may be removed from the supply guarantee list, reducing capacity by 19 million tons, pending verification [5] - The strategy suggests a wait-and-see approach until policy confirmations are made, with an emphasis on arbitrage opportunities between coking coal and coke [5]
焦煤：山西产地煤价偏弱运行 蒙煤价格跟随期货波动
Jin Tou Wang·2026-01-08 02:09