铁矿：宏观消息助推 供应面临淡季

Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market is experiencing fluctuations driven by macroeconomic factors, with a notable increase in the main iron ore futures contract and a corresponding rise in spot prices, indicating a complex interplay between supply and demand dynamics [7]. Supply - Global iron ore shipments have slightly decreased but remain at historically high levels, with total shipments down by 4.63 million tons to 32.137 million tons. Shipments from Australia and Brazil totaled 27.427 million tons, a decrease of 3.169 million tons [5]. - The shipment volume from Australia to China was 16.153 million tons, down by 2.523 million tons [5]. Demand - The average daily pig iron production is 2.2743 million tons, showing a slight increase of 0.085 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate is at 78.94%, up by 0.62%, and the capacity utilization rate is 85.26%, an increase of 0.32 percentage points [4]. - Steel mill profitability has improved to 38.1%, an increase of 0.87 percentage points [4]. Inventory - As of January 2, the inventory at 45 ports is 159.7089 million tons, an increase of 0.41 million tons. Steel mill imported ore inventory rose by 0.086 million tons to 89.4654 million tons [6]. Market Outlook - The iron ore market is expected to transition from a state of supply-demand balance to a scenario of both supply and demand weakness, with high inventory levels exerting downward pressure on prices while low inventory levels at steel mills provide some support [7]. - Short-term price fluctuations are anticipated, with a reference range of 770-840, influenced by macroeconomic sentiment, policy expectations, and steel mill replenishment rhythms [7].