This metric suggests bitcoin's late November plunge was the bottom and major upside lies ahead

Core Insights - Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a significant decline in late November, dropping to nearly $80,000, with the ratio of short-term holder supply in profit to that in loss reaching historically low levels, indicating potential bear market bottoms [1] Group 1: Short-Term Holder Dynamics - Short-term holders, defined as those holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days, saw their supply in profit fall to approximately 30,000 BTC at the November trough, while supply in loss surged to 2.45 million BTC, the highest since the FTX collapse in November 2022 [2] - As of early 2026, Bitcoin's price rallied to about $94,000, with short-term holder supply in loss declining to 1.9 million BTC and supply in profit rebounding to 850,000 BTC, resulting in a ratio of roughly 0.45 [3] Group 2: Historical Trends and Future Implications - Historically, when the ratio of short-term holders in profit to those in loss approaches 1, it tends to exceed that level, leading to a sustained upside phase in Bitcoin's price [4] - Currently, with the ratio below 0.5%, there is potential for significant further expansion before reaching equilibrium, while price tops have typically not occurred until the ratio rises toward 100 [4]