特朗普威胁“吞并”格陵兰岛，六种棋局推演

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential U.S. interest in Greenland, highlighting various scenarios for how this situation may unfold, with a strong emphasis on the improbability of a military takeover [1][3][15]. Group 1: U.S. Motivations for Interest in Greenland - The U.S. interest in Greenland is driven by national security concerns, as its strategic location is crucial for monitoring military activities in the North Atlantic and Arctic regions [4][16]. - Greenland is rich in mineral resources, including rare earth elements and potential oil and gas reserves, which are vital for U.S. high-tech industries [5][17]. - Climate change is making Arctic navigation more feasible, which could significantly shorten shipping routes between Europe and North America, further increasing Greenland's strategic importance [5][17]. Group 2: Historical Context of U.S. Interest - Historical attempts by the U.S. to acquire Greenland date back to 1868, with various administrations exploring the possibility of purchase, but none succeeded [6][18]. - In 1946, a proposal to buy Greenland for $100 million in gold was made but rejected by Denmark, indicating long-standing U.S. interest [6][18]. Group 3: Potential Scenarios for U.S. Control - The article outlines six potential scenarios for U.S. control over Greenland, with the "military takeover" scenario deemed highly unlikely due to international backlash [3][19]. - The most feasible scenarios include a "free association" model similar to Palau and Micronesia, allowing Greenland to maintain sovereignty while granting the U.S. certain rights [10][22]. - Another scenario involves a lease agreement for administrative control over Greenland, where sovereignty remains with Denmark but operational control is transferred to the U.S. [11][22]. Group 4: International Reactions - Denmark and other Nordic countries have issued strong statements against U.S. threats to annex Greenland, emphasizing the importance of respecting international law and territorial integrity [2][14]. - The collective response from Nordic foreign ministers underscores the need for NATO solidarity and adherence to the principles of the UN Charter [2][14].