倒计时两年，2028年两岸关系的3个时间节点

Core Viewpoint - The critical time node regarding the Taiwan issue is identified as 2028, with three significant dates: January 8 or January 15, May 20, and the U.S. election day [1]. Group 1: Upcoming Elections and Their Implications - The next Taiwan election is projected to occur on January 8 or January 15, 2028, which could lead to a continuation of the pro-independence DPP's governance for 16 years if they win [2]. - The outcome of the election will be pivotal for cross-strait relations, with potential paths leading to either peaceful unification or a more aggressive approach depending on the winning party [2][3]. Group 2: DPP's Position and Legislative Actions - The likelihood of the DPP pushing for "de jure independence" is low, as evidenced by the withdrawal of a proposal to change the name of the cross-strait relations law, which would have triggered severe responses from the mainland [4][5]. - Despite the low probability of formal independence, the DPP may still employ various strategies to promote independence rhetoric and deepen cross-strait tensions [5]. Group 3: Mainland China's Response - Actions taken by the mainland, including military exercises, are currently of a warning nature, but could escalate if the DPP remains in power post-election [6][7]. - The inauguration of the new Taiwanese leader on May 20, 2028, will be another critical moment, as the mainland will assess its next steps based on the leader's inaugural speech [7]. Group 4: U.S. Election Influence - The U.S. election, likely to occur around the same time as the Taiwan election, could influence mainland China's policy towards Taiwan, especially if a Democratic administration is perceived to be more lenient towards pro-independence forces [8]. Group 5: Alternative Scenarios - Besides the DPP winning the election, two other scenarios are possible: the KMT winning or the absence of an election altogether [9].