Jin Rong Jie·2026-01-08 02:46Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor sector is experiencing a strong performance driven by the global semiconductor "super cycle" and the deepening of domestic chip replacement, leading to significant investment opportunities in semiconductor equipment and computing chips [4]. Group 1: Semiconductor Equipment and Chip Performance - The semiconductor equipment sector is one of the strongest today, with notable gains in stocks such as Haiguang Information (over 10% increase) and Cambrian (over 3% increase) [1]. - The semiconductor equipment ETF (561980) has risen over 1.6%, reaching a scale of 28.82 billion yuan, marking new highs in both scale and net value since its inception [1]. - The index tracks the CSI semiconductor, with over 90% of its weight in semiconductor equipment (61%), materials (18%), and chip design (over 14% from Haiguang Information and Cambrian) [1]. Group 2: Demand Drivers - The demand for semiconductor equipment is surging due to technological iterations, with advanced process competitions and storage chip upgrades significantly increasing the usage of key equipment like etching and thin-film deposition [5]. - Under the same production capacity, equipment demand density can reach 1.7-1.8 times that of traditional processes, presenting structural growth opportunities for equipment manufacturers [5]. Group 3: Domestic Replacement Acceleration - The domestic replacement of semiconductor equipment is entering an accelerated phase, with predictions indicating that the domestic equipment localization rate could reach 22% by 2025 [6]. - Key processes such as etching, cleaning, and CMP have achieved significant breakthroughs, while high-end processes like lithography and thin-film deposition still have a localization rate below 25%, indicating substantial replacement potential [6]. Group 4: Policy and Financial Support - Recent capital movements, including Longxin's IPO raising approximately 30 billion yuan and SMIC's factory capital increase of about 7 billion USD, indicate a robust acceleration in capital layout within the semiconductor sector [7]. - The integration of major Fab factories into mature logic rights further supports the growth of the semiconductor equipment and foundry sectors, suggesting a potential leap in valuation and performance [7]. Group 5: Global Semiconductor Cycle - The global semiconductor market is projected to reach 975 billion USD by 2026, with a year-on-year growth of over 25%, driven by the AI computing revolution and a comprehensive recovery in demand across consumer electronics and automotive electronics [8][9]. - The semiconductor manufacturing equipment market is expected to achieve historical sales highs, with projections indicating a growth to 156 billion USD by 2025, continuing into 2026-2027 [9]. Group 6: ETF Performance - The semiconductor equipment ETF (561980) is highly focused on the upstream segments of the semiconductor industry, with nearly 60% of its content in equipment [10]. - The top ten weighted stocks in the index account for nearly 80%, including leaders like Zhongwei Company (etching equipment) and SMIC (manufacturing leader) [10]. - The index has shown a 62.33% increase in 2025, outperforming other mainstream semiconductor indices, with significant elasticity characteristics expected to continue in the new semiconductor cycle [11].