Bei Jing Wan Bao·2026-01-08 02:52Core Insights - The coffee market in China is experiencing intense competition, shifting from price wars to supply chain control, digital operations, and penetration into lower-tier markets [2][4] - The transformation reflects a deeper change in coffee consumption culture, evolving from "social consumption" to "daily consumption" [2][3] - Domestic brands are rapidly gaining market share, leveraging low pricing strategies and digital ordering models, while international brands are seeking strategic adjustments [3][5] Market Dynamics - The initial dominance of Western brands like Starbucks and Costa is being challenged by local brands such as Luckin Coffee, which disrupted the market with lower prices and convenient services [3][4] - As of 2024, the per capita annual coffee consumption in China is projected to rise from 6 cups in 2016 to 22 cups, with significant growth in second and third-tier cities [4] - Luckin Coffee has nearly 30,000 stores, while Starbucks operates around 8,000 stores after 26 years in China [4][5] Pricing Trends - Coffee prices have been declining, with average consumer spending on coffee dropping from 41 yuan in September 2023 to 26 yuan by September 2025 [6] - The proportion of coffee shops with prices below 15 yuan has increased from 29.8% in September 2024 to 36.9% in September 2025, driven by aggressive price competition [6] - The price war has altered consumer expectations, leading to a vacuum in the 16-25 yuan price range, pushing consumers towards cheaper options or premium brands [6] Challenges and Strategies - Coffee brands face challenges such as high costs, price pressures, and severe product homogenization, leading to decreased consumer loyalty [7] - Brands are responding by launching budget sub-brands, utilizing smart devices for cost reduction, and diversifying their business models [7] - Luckin Coffee has achieved a gross margin of 63.8% through scale procurement and self-built roasting factories [7] Supply Chain Importance - The competition is shifting towards supply chain integration and restructuring, with a focus on controlling costs and ensuring quality from "seed to cup" [9][10] - Coffee bean prices have seen significant fluctuations, impacting profitability; for instance, the price of Arabica coffee futures reached a 47-year high, increasing by 118.57% over the past year [10] - Major brands are engaging in long-term procurement agreements and establishing their own roasting facilities to stabilize costs and enhance efficiency [10][11] Future Outlook - The coffee industry is expected to undergo a "de-bubbling" reshuffle, leading to increased market concentration and the emergence of brands that leverage unique supply chains or regional advantages [12] - The market is transitioning from price-driven competition to efficiency-driven value competition, emphasizing the need for brands to establish a complete value chain advantage [12]