博道基金年度展望丨张迎军：尊重市场、拥抱变化

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 investment outlook for the A-share market highlights the impact of geopolitical changes and technological innovations, particularly in AI, on capital markets, while addressing potential challenges and opportunities for investors [3][4][31]. Market Overview - The A-share market has shown a bullish trend, with major indices recording their second consecutive year of positive annual K-lines, particularly the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a 10-year high [4][32]. - Historical data indicates that the A-share market has never recorded three consecutive years of positive annual K-lines, raising questions about the potential for a new cycle in 2026 [4][33]. Key Drivers of the Bull Market - The bull market is driven by several core factors, including the government's strong emphasis on the stock market, a prolonged low-interest-rate environment favoring dividend stocks, and the stock market's emergence as a leading asset class with mid-term growth potential [5][34][36]. - The market's dynamics are influenced by both short-term and mid-term variables, with the potential emergence of new long-term cycle variables that may not be immediately recognized by investors [4][33]. Market Consensus and Analysis - The consensus among analysts is that the government is committed to high-quality capital market development, as evidenced by various supportive policies introduced since early 2024 [5][34]. - The low-interest-rate environment has been beneficial for dividend-paying stocks, which have become a core component of long-term investment strategies [5][34]. - The stock market is increasingly viewed as a primary asset class with significant mid-term growth potential, especially as real estate's role in economic growth diminishes [5][34]. Geopolitical and Economic Context - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and China, are reshaping the investment landscape, with implications for market dynamics and corporate performance [8][39]. - The competition between the US and China is recognized as a critical geopolitical issue, influencing market sentiment and investment strategies [8][39]. Market Valuation and Structural Changes - The valuation framework of the A-share market is undergoing significant changes, with a notable divergence in performance between consumer stocks and technology sector stocks [40]. - The market's valuation adjustments may reflect a broader shift towards innovation-driven growth, necessitating a reevaluation of traditional investment strategies [40][43]. Investment Themes for 2026 - Key investment themes for 2026 include the continued focus on AI and technology innovation, resource commodities like gold, silver, and copper, and the potential for price increases in various sectors due to supply-demand dynamics [22][26][28]. - The performance of innovative pharmaceuticals is also highlighted, with expectations for continued growth driven by successful business development transactions and advancements in drug development [26][27].