“蛋”说无妨：启程“去产能”之旅，鸡蛋价格能回暖吗？

Core Viewpoint - The egg production industry is facing continuous losses due to high feed costs and low egg prices, prompting farmers to eliminate older hens and adopt a cautious approach to restocking, initiating a "capacity reduction" process. The egg price is expected to gradually recover in January 2026 due to a slight decrease in supply and seasonal demand increase around the Spring Festival [2][11]. Group 1: Egg Price Trends - As of December 2025, egg prices are at a low level, with limited upward movement due to sufficient supply and lack of market demand, leading to a cautious purchasing attitude among traders [3][12]. - The average price of eggs is approaching the "3 yuan" mark, with feed costs significantly impacting profitability, resulting in a loss of approximately 0.20 yuan per egg [12][14]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The egg production process is influenced by seasonal price fluctuations, with farmers traditionally culling older hens before the Spring Festival and restocking new chicks in the spring [14]. - By the end of December 2025, there was a notable increase in the culling of older hens, with a more than 1% increase in market supply, indicating the start of the industry's capacity reduction journey [14][5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - In January 2026, the number of new laying hens is expected to decrease due to low restocking enthusiasm, while the number of older hens to be culled may increase, leading to a slight reduction in the overall laying hen population [15]. - The anticipated decrease in egg supply, combined with increased purchasing activity from food manufacturers ahead of the Spring Festival, is expected to tighten market supply and demand, supporting egg prices to rise to around 3.20 yuan per jin [17][8].