聚丙烯：地缘争端引发油价波动 PP能否“借东风”乘势而上？

Core Viewpoint - The price trend of polypropylene (PP) is closely linked to oil prices, with expectations of initial price increases followed by declines in early 2026 due to geopolitical tensions and fundamental market pressures [2][6]. Group 1: Oil Price Influence on PP - Oil is a direct upstream product for polypropylene production, and fluctuations in oil prices significantly impact production costs and profit margins for PP manufacturers [2][11]. - The correlation between PP prices and oil prices has been strong, with a correlation coefficient maintained above 90% from 2021 to 2025. Oil prices have shown a pattern of small increases followed by fluctuations and declines [2][11]. - From 2023 to 2025, oil prices are expected to trend downward due to a shift in U.S. monetary policy, leading to weakened oil demand and lower production costs for PP [2][11]. Group 2: PP Market Dynamics - The PP market is anticipated to experience a short-term price increase due to cost support, but fundamental supply-demand pressures are expected to lead to a price decline thereafter [6][15]. - The expected price range for PP in January 2026 is projected to be between 5,950 and 6,350 yuan per ton, reflecting the anticipated market dynamics [15]. Group 3: Export Trends and Geopolitical Factors - China's PP export market is expected to reach a historical high of 3.1406 million tons in 2025, marking a 30.52% increase from 2024, indicating a shift towards becoming a net exporter [4][13]. - The expansion of PP exports to South America is in its early stages, with limited trade volume of 18,000 tons in 2025, suggesting minimal impact from geopolitical tensions on the overall PP market [4][13].