棉花：四季度棉价明显上涨 2026年一季度或冲高回落

Core Viewpoint - Domestic cotton prices are expected to experience fluctuations and rise in the fourth quarter of 2025, driven by cost support, improved demand expectations, and reduced supply pressure [3][17]. Group 1: Price Trends - In the fourth quarter, the average price of China's 3128B grade cotton was 14,570.51 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.46% from the third quarter but an increase of 0.03% compared to the fourth quarter of 2024 [4][18]. - The highest price reached 15,077 yuan/ton at the end of December, while the lowest was 14,188 yuan/ton at the beginning of October, with a price difference of 889 yuan/ton [4][18]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The sales progress of new cotton is rapid, with cotton spinning enterprises showing strong demand and ginning factories selling cotton actively, leading to a decrease in market selling pressure [6][20]. - Following the U.S.-China trade meeting on October 30, the cancellation of certain tariffs has improved the foreign trade environment, resulting in increased operating rates for cotton spinning enterprises [7][21]. Group 3: Future Price Expectations - In the first quarter of 2026, cotton prices may rise but are expected to face risks of retreat after reaching peaks due to increased cotton imports and a significant rise in commercial inventory levels [9][23]. - The total cotton production for the 2025/26 season is projected to reach 7.46 million tons, an increase of 11.34% year-on-year, with commercial inventory expected to rise to 671.66 million tons by the end of December [11][25]. Group 4: Demand Outlook - The demand side is expected to show limited performance in the first quarter, with low profit margins for textile enterprises and weak replenishment intentions ahead of the Spring Festival [13][27]. - The overall demand may remain subdued in February due to the holiday, with a potential recovery in March as the traditional demand season begins, contingent on downstream order follow-ups [13][27].