油脂有“料”：基本面差异背景下，1月豆棕价差趋于修复

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that by the end of 2025, domestic palm oil prices are expected to follow a weak trend due to supply pressures, while soybean oil prices will experience limited declines supported by fundamental factors, leading to a narrowing of the soybean-palm oil price spread [2][10] - As of January 6, 2026, the average price of first-grade soybean oil in the East China market is 8399 yuan/ton, and the price of 24-degree palm oil is 8579 yuan/ton, resulting in a soybean-palm oil price spread of -180 yuan/ton, which has narrowed by 170 yuan/ton compared to the same period last month [11] Group 2 - The palm oil market is under pressure due to a mismatch between expected and actual supply and demand data, with Malaysia's palm oil production in November at 1.9355 million tons, down 5.30% month-on-month, and exports decreasing by 28.13% [4][13] - The increase in Malaysia's palm oil inventory to 2.8354 million tons, a 13.04% rise, indicates a supply surplus, further weakening the palm oil market outlook [4][13] Group 3 - The soybean oil market is experiencing a seasonal reduction in raw soybean supply, leading to a slight decrease in crushing rates and a downward trend in soybean oil inventory, although the overall decline in inventory is slow due to previous increases in soybean purchases [5][14] - The tightening supply-demand balance for soybean oil is expected to provide stronger support for prices, with forecasts indicating that the price range for first-grade soybean oil in January will be between 8300 and 8600 yuan/ton [8][17]