杨德龙：新年牛市氛围愈来愈浓 市场赚钱效应明显提高

Core Viewpoint - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets are experiencing a continuous upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a historic "14 consecutive days of gains," confirming the ongoing "policy bull" market since September 24, 2024 [1][7]. Policy and Economic Environment - Economic growth stabilization policies are gradually taking effect, expected to improve economic data in 2026 and boost demand through moderate price recovery [1][7]. - The new "National Nine Articles" has significantly changed the A-share market ecosystem, with companies increasing cash dividends and stock buybacks to reward investors [1][7]. - The central bank has introduced policy tools to support the capital market and attract incremental capital [1][7]. Market Dynamics - In 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index broke the 4000-point mark for the third time, with concerns that it might be a market peak; however, it is viewed as the starting point for a new market phase [1][7]. - The market is expected to transition from a structural bull to a comprehensive bull market in 2026, driven by the increasing participation of retail investors [2][8]. Investor Behavior - The public fund sales in 2025 exceeded 1 trillion units, with equity funds accounting for over half [2][8]. - In December 2025, 2.6 million new stock accounts were opened, marking a 30.54% year-on-year increase, indicating a strong trend of household savings moving into the capital market [2][8]. - By the end of 2025, the total number of A-share accounts approached 400 million, with individual investors making up over 99% of the market, highlighting its retail-driven nature [2][8]. Market Performance - The A-share market saw an overall increase in 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 18.41% and the ChiNext Index increasing by over 50%, reflecting a broadening market profit effect [3][9]. - The current bull market is characterized by a slow and steady increase, potentially lasting 3-10 years, marking a significant shift in A-share market dynamics [3][9]. Future Outlook - The 2026 market is expected to continue the trends of 2025, with technology stocks remaining a key investment focus, alongside sectors like consumption, new energy, and military industry [4][10]. - The bull market is seen as a once-in-a-decade opportunity, with the potential to set historical records in duration [4][10]. Economic Impact - The bull market aims to boost consumption by enhancing household balance sheets and consumer confidence, thereby stimulating domestic demand [5][11]. - It is also expected to stabilize the real estate market as investors may redirect profits from the stock market into property purchases [5][11]. - The market's prosperity will support the development of innovative technology companies, fostering economic transformation and new growth drivers [6][11].