长江有色：宏观施压产业链撕裂静待非农破局 8日铅价或下跌

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the lead market is experiencing a downward trend due to a combination of weak supply and demand dynamics, with prices expected to remain under pressure in the short term [1][2] - The overnight London lead futures closed at $2058.5 per ton, down $12.5, reflecting a 0.6% decline, with trading volume at 16,127 lots and open interest at 183,753 lots [1] - The market sentiment is cautious, influenced by strong dollar performance and geopolitical risks, leading to decreased trading activity and a "price drop-volume shrinkage" feedback loop [2] Group 2 - The upstream raw material sector is facing tight supply due to seasonal production cuts, while the smelting segment is experiencing inventory accumulation due to weak downstream demand [1][2] - The lead-acid battery industry is currently in a seasonal downturn, with operating rates declining and procurement nearly halted, relying only on minimal storage needs for support [1] - Long-term industry trends suggest a strategic shift by leading companies towards new materials, indicating potential for industrial upgrades despite current market challenges [2]