长江有色: 铝季节性需求走弱及宏观降温 8日铝价或下跌

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the impact of political risks from the situation in Venezuela, leading to a decline in aluminum prices due to weak seasonal demand and inventory pressure [1][2] - The latest closing price for London aluminum is reported at $31,084 per ton, down by $50, reflecting a 1.60% decrease, with trading volume at 35,127 lots, a reduction of 10,581 lots [1] - Domestic aluminum production capacity is limited due to regulatory constraints, resulting in minimal increases in output, while overseas production also faces disruptions [2] Group 2 - The recent rise in the US dollar index to a four-week high has put pressure on aluminum prices, as a stronger dollar makes aluminum more expensive in dollar terms [2] - Despite a seasonal decline in demand, new growth points in emerging sectors such as artificial intelligence, energy storage, and robotics are gradually emerging [2] - Current market conditions indicate a potential further decline in spot aluminum prices due to weak demand and inventory accumulation, with traders showing a strong desire to liquidate holdings [2]